Identifying Unsustainable Finishing and Expected Goals Overperformance in the 2009/10 Premier League
A sustained discrepancy between low expected goals creation and high actual goal tallies represents one of the most reliable warning signs of impending performance regression in elite football. During the 2009/10 Premier League campaign, several mid-table clubs and streaky attacking units enjoyed extended periods of dramatic scoring efficiency, converting low-probability perimeter efforts and contested half-chances…